The Most Important Statistic From Gallup’s Trans Issues Poll Is Not What You Think.
One Statistic to Rule Them All.
Two days ago, Gallup, a polling firm that specialises in gauging Americans’ opinions on various issues, released its survey concerning the country’s views on trans people. Usually, I don’t think there is anything particularly newsworthy about polls like these. However, Gallup decided to throw in a new question this year, and it's probably one of the most important statistics regarding trans people ever collected.
Nature vs. Nurture
For those not familiar, the nature vs. nurture debate is an important question in psychology, and it poses a simple question: “Is ______ caused primarily by nature or nurture?” Often, the answer is a mixture of both. However, in the case of being transgender, science mainly points towards nature being the cause, and studies of areas of the brain that are sexually dimorphic—that being, different between sexes—have repeatedly shown the brains of trans people structurally align with those of their gender identity and not their birth sex.
In the poll, Gallup asked respondents this exact question: “In your view, is being transgender something a person is born with or due to factors such as upbringing and environment?” 30% of those surveyed answered “born with,” 50% answered “upbringing and environment,” 7% answered “both,” and 11% answered either “neither” or “no opinion.” Moreover, only 57% of those who identified as Democrats believe being transgender is primarily due to nature. That’s a worrying statistic. Although this is the first time they’ve asked this question about being trans, they’ve been asking this question about being gay or lesbian since 1977, and here’s what that data looks like:
While a plurality of Americans continue to believe being gay or lesbian is because of nature, that figure declined quite a bit since the question was last asked in 2019. Additionally, the percentage of those supporting same-sex marriage has also fallen to 68% from a peak of 71% in 2023. What’s worse, these declines come as religious organisations like the United Methodist Church lift their bans on same-sex marriage. So, what’s behind all this?
Don’t Say Gay
Just like the corresponding question surrounding trans people, this decline in the public perception of LGB people is no happy accident. At first glance, there doesn’t seem to be anything in the Republican platform about being lesbian, gay, or bisexual; even now, there are quite a few prominent gay Republicans like Peter Thiel and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. But they have been going after LGB individuals too, just in a very subtle manner. Since the start of the decade, some Republican states have endorsed the idea that children are being indoctrinated by ‘woke ideology’ in public schools, school districts around the country have taken books with LGBTQ+ themes off the shelves, and national headlines have been made by parents suing to keep an LGBTQ–inclusive curriculum away from their kids.
It could be that all this fearmongering was conceived to boost enrollment in private schools; after all, that is something Republican-controlled states have been heavily pushing school voucher programs (Ted Cruz even called it the Civil Rights Issue of the 21st Century; I really wish I was joking). It could also be that this was started by someone who actually believes this (for example, Elon Musk appears to genuinely believe his trans daughter, Vivian Jenna Wilson, fell victim to the ‘woke mind virus’). But regardless of what the intention was, the impact of this rhetoric is clear. It’s a rehashing of the idea that being LGBTQ+ can be taught. And if it can be taught, it stands to reason that it can be un–taught.
So, if the number of people who believe being trans or gay is an innate characteristic goes down, then all other figures will be pulled down with it. Factor in all the rhetoric surrounding detransition rates, and we can start to see why only 30% of Americans believe trans people are born that way.
As it turns out, that 30% who believe someone is born being trans is a pretty good predictor of public opinion surrounding gender-affirming care, prisons, bathrooms, ID changes, and sports. Ultimately, if someone thinks being trans is a choice, they probably won’t support mandating insurance companies cover gender-affirming care, letting minors access gender-affirming care, or having policies that allow gender marker changes.
So, while we’re facing an uphill battle, this statistic offers a glimpse into the root of the problem. Often, it happens that trans issues are complicated for cis people to understand. And if there’s any hope of undoing the damage Republicans have done to the public’s perception of trans people, we have to deconstruct it for them. Letting them know we too are Born This Way is an excellent place to start.
What is causing this is people only hear the hate from the fascists. The Democrats either say nothing or join in the kicking. We need a political party which will actually support us.
The public is frequently wrong about basic facts. If they asked about the existence of intersex people, I would imagine a similarly wrong opinion would dominate, just as the earth being flat, the sun revolving around the earth, attaching leeches and other views of the majority throughout time.