Republicans Have Relied On Anti-Trans Rhetoric For Years. Now, Trump’s Sinking Approval May Be Transphobia’s Downfall.

Transphobia won't save Donald Trump.

For the past four years, Republicans have mounted a pretty effective crusade against trans people. What started in 2020 with an Idaho law against trans participation in sports has grown into attacks on our healthcare, freedom of expression, bathrooms, and more. But beyond legislative action, these actions have contributed a great deal to the rise in transphobia among the general population. Except there’s a catch: the rhetoric doesn't always work. And if it goes too far, it can even be detrimental to the transphobia it intends to promote.

A Carefully Crafted, Hateful Narrative

When an unpopular political party is in power, the positions opposite their own tend to get a surge in support. During Trump’s first term, we saw this on full display: increases in support for abortion, same-sex marriage, trans rights, gun control, and almost everything else. When Biden was in office, there was backsliding on all these issues except for abortion, which remained steady because of the Supreme Court. Republicans knew this, and that’s why they went all in on curtailing trans rights.

However, anti-trans campaigns are very difficult to get right. In 2016, when North Carolina passed ‘bathroom bill’ HB2, the backlash was so severe it’s largely responsible for costing the Republican governor his job. So they pivoted. They picked a new line of attack, one based on ‘protecting kids from harm’ (and for sports, ‘fairness’), and passed laws accordingly. Over time, the culture war issue they manufactured became the centerpiece of their campaign strategy.

During the 2024 election, the Trump team spent more than $200 million on transphobic ads. While the political efficacy of these ads is questionable, a study by GLAAD found that the “Kamala Harris is for they/them, Donald Trump is for you” ad was responsible for a 3.7% decrease in support for trans people’s access to healthcare among those who had seen it. And that’s just one ad; the damage Republicans have done to the public’s perception of trans people is likely way higher. Once the hate made its way to the White House, the current administration quickly cashed in its political capital with executive orders targeting passports, sports, gender-affirming care, and the military.

An All-Too Predictable Decline

However, although their arguments worked in driving up support for policies surrounding gender-affirming care and sports, they can’t be easily applied to other contexts. Yes, the kids are ostensibly ‘protected,’ and sports are ‘fair,’ but that’s it. That’s all this rhetoric leads to. And that’s exactly the GOP’s problem: they control all three branches of government, yet there are very few ways they can keep the hate going. Their nationwide trans sports ban died in the Senate, injunctions have stopped many of Trump’s anti-trans policies, and the proposed Medicaid ban was stripped from the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ this morning. If hate is not fed, it dies, and feeding it would require a new narrative, something that can only work if Republicans are the opposition.

A good parallel can be drawn to the issue of abortion. For years, Republicans ran on overturning Roe v. Wade, and for years, it drove Republican turnout. Now that they’ve succeeded, they can’t take it further. Abortion is either legal or it’s not, and that kind of binary political issue can’t fuel long-term policy changes.

Trans people can’t be run on forever either. Sure, Trump has done all those transphobic things, but our community is just as visible as it was before he won. If his voters were hoping for erasure, none of what he ran on will ever make that a reality. And come 2028, no amount of “Democrats are for they/them, Republicans are for you” can distract from the rising costs, global instability, and incompetent leadership they’re responsible for.

Just yesterday, a new University of Texas poll put Trump’s approval rating in Texas at -7 points. When respondents were asked about his handling of trans issues, 41% disapproved, 35% approved, and 19% said they were neutral. This comes even after a nationwide poll last month found trans issues to be one of Trump’s strengths. Simply put, now that the right is having a hard time continuing its anti-trans crusade, voters may stop caring about trans issues altogether. One thing’s for sure: if things keep going the way they are, transphobia’s days as conservatives’ go-to political weapon are numbered.