As a Government Shutdown Looms, a Congressional Fight Over Trans Rights Seems Inevitable

Breaking down the possible outcomes of this year's appropriations fight.

Since the fight over appropriations started in June, Republicans have added in a multitude of anti-trans ‘rider’ provisions to these crucial funding bills. As I previously covered, the Labor, Education, and Health and Human Services bill targets LGBTQ+ discrimination protections, bans federal funding from going to gender-affirming care—including therapy—for both adults and children, and codifies Trump’s ban on trans people’s participation in sports. The Commerce, Justice, and Science bill contains text that would codify both Trump’s policies of placing trans inmates according to their ‘biological sex’ and denying them access to gender-affirming care, ban gender-affirming surgeries from being performed in any federal facility, and prohibit funds from going towards “any education, training, or professional development” “that condones an individual feeling discomfort, guilt, anguish, or any other form of psychological distress on account of that individual’s race or sex.” And the Financial Services and General Government bill contains a provision backing the recent policy change that cut gender-affirming care coverage for federal employees.

And in the past week, it’s become clear the Republicans are willing to put their opposition to trans people over the good of the country. Even as a shutdown looms, Trump is unwilling to back down on his demands. But even if Democrats refuse to give in now, this story will be far from over, and there’s really only two ways this anxiety-inducing, high-stakes professional game of chicken can end.

Kicking the Can Down the Road

In our hyper-polarised political era, the threat of a government shutdown has become relatively commonplace. Negotiations turn sour, both parties blame each other, and then, with hours to spare, a shutdown is averted. Usually, when this happens, Republicans are the ones to cave first. Well, not really.

When Republicans ‘cave,’ they don’t actually back down from their proposals. Instead, they agree to pass a continuing resolution, which gives both parties more time to conduct the negotiations they procrastinated until the last minute. These continuing resolutions maintain the status quo until either a compromise is reached or another one must be passed to keep the government open and serve no purpose other than kicking the can down the road.

Although an agreement does eventually come, this cycle is not without its consequences. In the past few years, Republican demands surrounding trans people have gotten worse. What used to be the most transphobic proposal—banning federal funds from going to gender-affirming surgeries for minors—has now become one of their least ‘unreasonable’ ones. This was put on full display just last year, when a rider amendment banning gender-affirming care coverage for minors that rely on the military’s health plan, TRICARE, made it into the version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that was signed by President Biden.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that eventually, one or more of those less ‘unreasonable’ trans-related policies is going to be passed at the national level. Because unfortunately, this cycle provides Republicans with the opportunity to normalise the demands that went unmet the last time this fight happened. So even if none of the transphobic provisions being floated make it onto this year’s bipartisan compromise, they will constitute the new bare minimum that Republicans will push for in the future. Clearly, this problem will only continue to get worse until Republicans lose control of Congress.

Give Them an Inch

The other option is much more straightforward: Senate Democrats abandon their defense of the trans community. While this is a bleak scenario, it’s not impossible. So far, Democrats have remained relatively united in opposition to anti-trans riders, but if they do indeed capitulate, it would probably be on sports and/or gender-affirming care for minors.

I will say this though: if they allow a trans sports ban as part of a compromise, it would be mostly symbolic. Given that Trump has already mostly enforced this policy through his Executive Order from February, the effects of this wouldn’t be too wide-reaching. However, the same can’t be said about the effects this would have on future negotiations.

Because so far, the inclusion of anti-trans riders has proven to be more unacceptable to Democrats than their exclusion has been for Republicans. Should Democrats give in to the Republican pressure, these roles will likely reverse. In this scenario, Republicans, knowing that Democrats can be strong-armed into passing transphobic provisions, will be free to adopt the role of being unable to accept their exclusion. Whether this would mean conservatives adopt a strategy of proposing many extremist policies in hopes of normalising a handful of them or go the route of digging in on a few of the currently proposed policies in subsequent negotiations is hard to say.

The bottom line is: if Democrats allow even the weakest anti-trans provisions to slip through the cracks in this fight, this problem will only get worse for them. And I hope they know that. As the saying goes, give them an inch and they’ll take a mile.

Over the coming weeks, things will be changing quickly. So as the congressional shutdown fight continues, it’s important to keep an eye on the Senate. Usually, each chamber creates their own versions of each of the appropriations bills, and so far, those proposed by the Senate are not nearly as extreme. Whether the Senate appears to give those House bills any serious consideration—should they make it out of the House unchanged, that is—will be a serious indicator of the direction this fight will take going forward. And while I hope Democrats will hold firm, nothing is set in stone.